The Next Four: Analysing South Australia’s 2026 Election Landslide and the Industrial Road Ahead
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The dust has settled on what many are calling the "inevitable election," but the tremors from the 2026 South Australian State Election are only just beginning to be felt. In this special, The Next Four, a collaboration between The Great Southern Discussion Club and RawCut, host Rhys Jarrett sits down with David Fox, President of Bendigo Trades Hall, to dissect a political map that has been fundamentally redrawn.
With Labor securing a staggering 33-seat supermajority, the conversation moves beyond the tally room to ask the hard questions: Why did the Liberal vote collapse? What does the surge of One Nation mean for the future of the "crossroads state"? And can the Malinauskas government translate its massive mandate into a new era of industrial sovereignty?
A Supermajority and a New Third Force
The headline figures are impossible to ignore. While Labor cruised to victory with 37.5% of the first preference vote, the real story lies in the fragmentation of the opposition. Pauline Hanson’s One Nation surged to 22.9%, leapfrogging the Liberal Party, which languished at 18.9%.
David Fox notes that while the Labor win was expected, the scale of the One Nation "shot in the arm" signals a profound shift in the electorate. The traditional two-party dynamic has been disrupted, leaving the Liberals diminished and searching for a role as a reputable opposition.
The Strategy Behind the Landslide: Defence and Rare Earths
The episode explores how the Malinauskas government successfully branded itself as the "party of government." By leaning heavily into the AUKUS pact and South Australia’s position as a global supplier of critical minerals, Labor has courted international trade interests and big business alike.
Rhys and David discuss the "Justin Trudeau" effect—the polished, popular aesthetic of Peter Malinauskas—and how that may add to his undoing.
Rebuilding the Industrial Heart: From AUKUS to Whyalla
Perhaps the most compelling segment of the show tackles the future of South Australian manufacturing. For a state built on the back of post-war icons like Holden and Hills Hoist, the pivot to high-tech defence manufacturing via AUKUS represents a major gamble.
David Fox, a boilermaker by trade, argues for a return to civilian manufacturing. He raises the critical issue of the Whyalla Steelworks, currently in administration. In a provocative turn, the discussion looks at whether "nationalisation" should stop being a dirty word. For David, public ownership of the steelworks isn't just about jobs; it’s about national sovereignty and ensuring the state has the materials to build its own future.
Topic Chapters and Timestamps
00:00 – The Inevitable Election: Introduction and Labor’s Landslide.
00:55 – The Numbers: Breaking down the 33-seat Supermajority.
01:52 – The One Nation Surge: How the Liberals lost their spot as the primary opposition.
04:27 – Why Labor Won: AUKUS, Energy, and Global Strategy.
07:34 – The Malinauskas Image: Aesthetics and Governance.
08:09 – The "Liberal Wing": Neoliberalism and the Labor Party tradition.
11:06 – Manufacturing Legacy: Looking back at Elizabeth and the post-war boom.
15:32 – The AUKUS Gamble: Defence vs. Peacetime Manufacturing.
18:43 – Vocational Future: The role of new Technical Colleges.
21:56 – The Whyalla Crisis: The case for Nationalisation and Sovereignty.
24:27 – Conclusion and how to join the Great Southern Discussion Club.
Notable Quotes
Rhys Jarrett: "You could reasonably call it the inevitable election. The South Australian State Election for 2026 with a landslide towards Labor."
David Fox: "What surprised me though, it was actually the high percentage of the One Nation vote... it is a very big shot in the arm for them."
David Fox: "South Australia is in that strategic spot on a world economic level, not just even on a national level."
Rhys Jarrett: "With the Malinauskas government... he has tried to promote this kind of almost Justin Trudeau kind of image."
David Fox: "I think that it shouldn't be a dirty word, a nationalisation... we need to have our own industries for our own national sovereignty."
Speech FAQs:
Question: What were the final primary vote percentages for the major parties in the 2026 SA Election?
Answer: According to the transcript, Labor received 37.5% of first preference votes, followed by One Nation with 22.9%, the Liberal Party with 18.9%, and the Greens with 10.4%.
Question: Why is South Australia being referred to as a "strategic spot" in the world economy?
Answer: David Fox explains that South Australia is a critical supplier of rare earths and minerals necessary for modern technology like microchips and electric cars, alongside its heavy involvement in the AUKUS defence pact.
Question: What is the suggested solution for the struggling Whyalla Steelworks?
Answer: David Fox argues that the government should consider nationalisation or public ownership, backed by financial guarantees and modernization, to ensure national sovereignty and industrial capacity.
Transcript:
Rhys Jarrett: You could reasonably call it the inevitable election. The South Australian State Election for 2026 with a landslide towards Labor.
Peter Malinauskas: Tonight I'm overwhelmed with a sense of gratitude, a gratitude to so many people who have provided this government the opportunity to be able to continue to serve, to be able to continue our work of making sure that the momentum in South Australia delivers for the people who deserves it most. And those are the people of South Australia.
Rhys Jarrett: But what happens next?
Voice-Over: From the Great Southern Discussion Club and RawCut, this is The Next Four. The immediate election takeaways, the long-term vision, and the hard choices ahead.
Rhys Jarrett: Welcome, friends. My name's Rhys Jarrett, and this is a Great Southern Discussion Club special reviewing the South Australian election for 2026. The results of the election meant that the Labor Party in the Assembly has a supermajority of 33 seats, with other parties making up the remainder. On the first preference vote side of things, the Labor Party got 37.5% of all first preference votes, followed by Pauline Hanson's One Nation with 22.9%, then the Liberal Party with 18.9%, and the Greens with 10.4%, with minor parties following. Joining me today is the President of Bendigo Trades Hall in Victoria, and we're going to have a little bit of a discussion about the results of the South Australian election and what can come next over the next 4 years, particularly in the view of prosperity for South Australians. So, David, welcome.
David Fox: Good evening.
Rhys Jarrett: Now, just based off of the basic results from the election, what is your immediate take?
David Fox: Well, first of all, my immediate take The results was not surprising for me. Labor was expected to win and the results with One Nation wasn't surprising either. So in some aspects, this was already on the cards of the way it was going to end. What surprised me though, it was actually the high percentage of the One Nation vote compared to in previous years. And I think for them, it's been a major boon for them to step up for further elections in the future. It is a very big shot in the arm for them. I think when I was looking at the Labor win itself, I mean, obviously they've got absolute majority now. They've written the mandate. They'll go ahead and do what policies they will implement. But at the same time, I think with One Nation, They've been given a boost and I think now we're looking at other states and we'll talk about Victoria in a little while. They are looking at other places to obviously expand and grow their influence. Well, I think for the Liberals, there's a big loss for them. I think now them as being as a reputable opposition at least has been diminished even further now with the very few seats they did win. I think One Nation's now starting to overtake take them.
Rhys Jarrett: Yeah, so we had the 2018 election, from memory, which is the election where SA Best, the party that was led by Nick Xenophon— he was trying to get into state politics— that was the last time that we saw a real swift kind of attack towards getting a new party with a large majority of people involved over all of the seats. So all in every seat, from memory, every seat had a candidate from SA Best. And this time we're seeing Pauline Hanson's One Nation, not a particularly new party when it comes to Australian politics in general, but new to South Australian politics, at least in this iteration. So it's interesting to me that I think we need to just rewind a little bit and think, how can we— how did the Labor Party actually win this election. What really was the driving force behind that? Do we have any ideas there?
David Fox: Oh, look, there's quite a few. And I think the Labor Party as well has been very big interest, vested interests in the defense industries in South Australia, especially with the onset of AUKUS. They've been playing a very— both federally and on state level, been a significant player there. But also many others in the energy sector as well. They're looking to expand the renewable sector even further and obviously other minerals, rare earths, that which now on a worldwide scale has put South Australia on that strategic era of being a world supplier of all the critical minerals and rare earths component to all of the modern technology we have today. For example, electric cars, microchips, just one or two examples, but many others. So South Australia is in that strategic spot on a world economic level, not just even on a national level. It's part of the country effectively. Very much. Your rival state in that sense would be actually Western Australia in the energy sector and rare earths and minerals as well. The fact is both states have all those natural resources. Now, I think the plan for South Australia is how you're going to be to take advantage of the strategic position they do hold in the world economy. And I think, well, the Labor Party there, I was meant to say with them, they have been behind the scenes a lot of working. Obviously seen the trade deals, seen all the overseas trips and encouraging of overseas functionaries and big businesses as well. So there's a lot more to it. So obviously they've all given all these powers that be, have given the Labor Party the tick approval. They need to have good stable government there in South Australia and policies implemented in place so it can allow them to then take advantage of where South Australia lies with its natural resources.
Rhys Jarrett: Yeah, I suppose that's the interesting dynamic there. Obviously there's the energy sector side of things, but on the political side of things, you have the Labor Party being seen by a lot of different parts of this country, a lot of different sectors in society, as being a party of government, a party that is capable of practically governing. We saw during the COVID-19 period, the Steven Marshall government, there was a certain kind of clownish kind of nature to it all. Not to say that Stephen Marshall wasn't trying to take it seriously, but it just had that kind of vibe to it. And we see with, with the Malinauskas government, ever since that election win in, I think it was 2022, he has tried to kind of promote this kind of, I suppose, on a kind of a an aesthetics level, a kind of almost Justin Trudeau kind of image. And I think that's a very good comparison because you could say he's very similar to Justin Trudeau in those early years when he was popular. He also expresses some of those weaknesses that Justin Trudeau has had in his later years before he got really unpopular. But Malinauskas overall is generally seen as a pretty popular leader of the Labor government. So is that really the dynamic going on here, that they're just simply the government, the party that is seen to be capable of governing?
David Fox: Well, I think we look at the context of the Labor Party and besides its trade union base, the Labor Party is very much the Liberal wing of the system we live in. And I don't mean the term of Liberal National a party, I mean, of a liberal wing, more so in the American sense. But you just mentioned even with the Canadians, with the Democratic Party there, they're more in line with that side of politics and that side of business as well. Where you're looking at the Liberal and the Nationals, they traditionally was part of that conservative side of the politics. The liberal wing, obviously, sometime. I know like in America, for example, the Democrats are in crisis for many years. There was a lot of rejection through that and obviously voting Trump. In Canada, it's a little bit different scene there as well. But that's what the Labor Party in that context, I think, what was interesting because what Labor has been standing for the last 40 years, free market ideology, the market determines and all that bit. It's surprisingly how often they have voted in. You'd think for even— it was actually Labor on a federal level that kicked it all off in the first place under Bob Hawke and Paul Keating.
Rhys Jarrett: And obviously you're talking about the neoliberalization of Australia.
David Fox: Yeah. So they've been right at the forefront of that for a long time. Obviously they were trying Obviously they've been keen on having concessions out of that to try and make population benefit. And that's what they've sort of represented, where the Liberal Party itself predominantly have always represented a very ultra-conservative side of things. But major cutbacks, everyone's pretty much on their own two feet and they wanted to play the small government in that sense, where the Labor Party wants to still play a role in the whole, much bigger role in the whole neoliberal scheme. So they're the main two contrasts there as well. But I think that that's what made Labor, and I think it's pretty much unique for South Australia. I think it's the state with the most Labor governments or longest-serving Labor governments compared to other states throughout Australia. And I think it's, you know, so in some aspect you could say it's a historical tradition.
Rhys Jarrett: There's a traditional dynamic of there being multiple Labor terms of government followed by maybe a Liberal term of government, then directly followed by multiple Labor terms of government. That's the cycle that goes on and on again. And so that it's interesting that that is always the dynamic, particularly for South Australia. Is the main reason for that the manufacturing dynamic. And I know this interests you as the manufacturing dynamic because you are by trade a boilermaker. And in South Australia there is a legacy, particularly in the post-war period, of manufacturing in the state, particularly with the establishment of suburbs like Elizabeth, where we had this, the adjacent Holden manufacturing plant, and in amongst a number of other plants like Westinghouse, which is now Electrolux, and they still even exist down there. But yeah. it is a traditional manufacturing hub for the country in some respects, as was Melbourne in many respects as well. So did that reflect in the vote? Did the Labor Party actually reflect the interests of Labor in that postwar period?
David Fox: I think for this state election, to a degree, there is still some of that. To a degree, I think Labor out of, say, the two— we'll just use the two major parties— had the better position for manufacturing. And I know there's been a lot of hard work, even on behalf of my own union, to bring back manufacturing. As I think, as I mentioned before, South Australia is in a very good strategic spot on the worldwide economy. And why can't we manufacture all the means for the rare earths and minerals and and various other stuff. I mean, defence has always been one of the big things, but there's many others as well where manufacturing could be a major support service there and industry for South Australia. It would be a major shot in the arm for that. And we can even know where there's strategic cities where a lot of that can happen. We've still got Port Augusta, Whyalla, and right down through to Adelaide. And it's all connected up by interstate rail and it's perfect position to do so. It's basically at a rail crossroads and you can move stuff everywhere.
Rhys Jarrett: Indeed, because all of the railway, major railway corridors, the rail corridor going from east to west in Australia as well as the other east-west corridor, at least for part of it, is the corridor between particularly Melbourne and Adelaide, which in times of problems, particularly around the Broken Hill area, the Australian Rail and Track Corporation tends to reroute traffic along that southern route, which is more or less there for the servicing of things like Geelong Port as well, because the route actually takes an interesting diversion through Geelong instead of taking a direct route to Melbourne.
Voice-Over: Coming up.
Rhys Jarrett: And now we're going into a new Malinauskas government. What should they be doing? Should they be nationalising it?
David Fox: Yes, I think that it shouldn't be a dirty word, a nationalisation. Everyone's going, what does that mean? I think it should come under public ownership. All that and more on the next Four.
Promo: Watch all episodes of RawCut's Life Bursts at our Life Burst webpage https://www.rawcut.com.au/shows/lifebursts/
David Fox: The Next Four, now continues.
Rhys Jarrett: South Australia is the only mainland state that touches every other mainland state geographically as well as the Northern Territory. And for that reason, that's why we say it's a crossroads state. So there is a significant heartland element there. And then there's also a significant dynamic there for precious minerals, for natural resources, for energy resources. And so that has had a heritage in building that manufacturing capacity in Australia, but also South Australia specifically. So what's the future of manufacturing in South Australia? We know that the state government has its eyes set on something following the AUKUS pact and manufacturing around that. Is that the future of heavy manufacturing in Australia?
David Fox: Well, for starters, defence spending is a natural occurrence by all governments, mainly federal, not state, but usually federal. And to try and reboot the economy. That's been a case since prior to World War II, but obviously more of a case now, especially in these days. I think for the future of manufacturing based around AUKUS, all that type of— there's a few things. I mean, it basically prior, during World War II and after, most defense manufacturing was also catered to manufacture for peacetime purposes as well. This is the key for it because I think one of the questions you would have for AUKUS, what about for peacetime purposes? Well, the new naval shipyards, that is, or is it just going to be straight for submarines, that alone? And I think that those important questions and sure, it employs some people. I'll take that back. It's more than just some people. It does a lot of people. But in the whole scheme of things for manufacturing, it's actually only a smaller component. Really, we just mentioned about before what South Australia once had, like General Motors, Holden, also Victor lawnmowers, Hills Hoist, many of the common brands that we still know about but no longer made. But those were just the main two and they employed far more people in its time and they generated more more gross domestic product and a strong economy than SA is just strictly defence. Now for defence also, and I'll just say to keep this in mind, it also too, we've had no nuclear— well, I won't say no, we do have a nuclear facility in Sydney, which is called Lucas Heights, but actually for working on nuclear reactors and that, well, there's been less of that experience. Now that was also, I think, part part of it. And both political persuasions, both parties have come up with it. Well, basically we can get people trained up in that because obviously in the future, I know the Liberal Party may announce they want to go down the nuclear power act. So they've got the skills and the basis to go that path. Because the problem is with the Liberal Party when they say, oh, we want to have nuclear generation. Well, we actually don't have the vital skills in that era. I think they've I think they're dreaming a little bit without actually taking some serious consideration and how they would go about that. But that's part of that whole AUKUS plan. So it's not just having these big submarines nuclear powered, but it also allows to build up the skills base to have that option open to if we're— if Australia ever decided to adopt nuclear energy, then Look, I want— I think the argument tonight, we won't get into the pros and cons of it or if we are going to go that way. But that's obviously left Australia with a door opening to it.
Rhys Jarrett: Yeah, it's a very interesting dynamic. And I remember when the kind of bringing in of all of these various policies relating to AUKUS, I think the most beneficial one at the moment, from my perspective at least, has been the establishment of these technical colleges. Which is an after-secondary school education system that is on this sort of vocational level of education where you're trying to teach people who are graduating from high school new skills to be able to enter those emerging industries and specifically those emerging industries. Historically, this kind of role has been for TAFEs in Australia, but they're creating this entirely new technical colleges entity to be able to do that now. And they've got a number of different campuses in the works and some are operational already. So for me personally, if those existed 10 years ago when I was leaving high school, more than 10 years ago when I was leaving high school, that would have been a very significant option for me to consider. In terms of my future and how I could facilitate a greater prosperity for myself along with everyone else who lives around me. But what other options is there for South Australia to actually facilitate practical prosperity? Because you're talking about civilian manufacturing in your answer. Do we actually see any genuine growth in that civilian manufacturing capacity based off of the developments we're seeing in the defence industry?
David Fox: Well, good, that's a good question because over the many years there's been a very big decline of manufacturing in that sense. We've still got some manufacturing, but very— it's not— it's very small compared to what it was those many years ago when we did have a very big industrial capacity. The thing is, Personally, I think this is where governments need to focus on, is rebuilding that industrial base again, that manufacturing base for everything, because we seem to still be importing a lot. I think what's going on at the moment on the world scale, what's happened in the Middle East and that, it's put again, put the question in, well, why aren't we have our own industrial base to supply ourselves even further? And manufacturing is not just heavy engineering, we're looking at all sorts, or making cars. We're looking at food production is a major one for us, stuff for the medical facility and health. Health and medical is the biggest growing area at the moment, has been for some years. So you'd be thinking, well, we'd have a manufacturing base to supply all that from medicines right through to general stuff for hospitals, the whole lot instead of having to wait for bringing something on a plane or a ship over here. But yeah, We should be looking at everything. I mean, I know there is around the country being considered effort now.
Rhys Jarrett: But there is an option here, and that is you have the Whyalla Steelworks. The Whyalla Steelworks there, that was sent into forced administration by, in the previous term of government, the Malinauskas government. And now we're going into a new Malinauskas government. What should they be doing? Should they be nationalising it?
David Fox: Yes. Look, I think that it shouldn't be a dirty word, a nationalisation. Everyone's going, what does that mean? I think it should come under public ownership and guarantee it's backed up by a financial guarantee to keep those steelworks going, but also a major upgrade, modernising it as well. That's what has to happen. And bringing in new methods of steelmaking. Whyalla's in that strategic spot. It's got its own port. Again, it's connected to the national rail network. It's got iron ore around it. Why would you want to see a place like that close down? In its day, and I'll just tell them the history about there, Whyalla used to have its own shipyard there as well. BHP used to build their own ore carriers and steel carriers. The remnants of it you can still see to this day. But that should be a major heartbeat for South Australia to have those steelworks. And it's part of also a question of sovereignty. We need to have our own industries for our own national sovereignty. Steelmaking is one of them, along with, you know, we could talk about oil and gas as well and energy sector, but steel manufacturing is one of them. We shouldn't have to rely on imports from overseas. The only time we should import steel is if there's a shortage of steel here. If we can't keep up to capacity. But really, Rhys, we can be quite dependent on our own steelmaking if we had some foresight and planning and proper steelmaking here. So Whyalla is a vital asset for the state of South Australia. And I think to have that closed down altogether would be just devastating for Whyalla, but the whole state and national economy. As well, be devastating for the state and the national economy because where are we going to get our steel from?
Rhys Jarrett: Yeah, indeed. And I think we can all agree that in this immediate term, I think there's two things that need to be shored up is that steel manufacturing capacity as well. But most importantly, the energy capacity because we're in a tight spot at the moment. Well, I suppose that is all the time that we have for this conversation. Now, this is a conversation brought to you in part by The Great Southern Discussion Club. You can find the Great Southern Discussion Club at gsdc.znn.au. That's gsdc.znn.au. And there you can find a number of articles, including articles from myself and David, as well as a number of other participants in the Great Southern Discussion Club. And you can be a participant too. We are not a closed book society here. We ensure that everybody has the capacity to be able to participate in the Great Southern Discussion Club. My name's Rhys Jarrett. Thank you for watching.
Voice-Over: This was a RawCut production for the Great Southern Discussion Club.
